As we enter the final shipping peak of 2025, several critical developments may affect supply chain planning. These are some of the hot issues in the global ocean market:

1. Tariff-Related Front-Loading: Demand is adjusting downward quickly after the front-loading of wave of cargo in May and June due to the threats of reciprocal tariffs.

2. Port Congestion: Significant congestion in North European ports, such as Rotterdam and Antwerp, with average vessel dwell times extending three to five days.

3. Carrier Capacity Management: Carriers managing capacity through blank sailings and adjusting vessel deployments. This will negatively impact recent reliability improvements.

4. Rate Pressure: Rate pressure is expected to continue, higher rates on Asia-Europe probable but lower or flat rates on the Transpacific Eastbound routes. Other trades also having flat or lower rates as extra capacity leave Transpacific and is placed into other trades.

5. Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pose risks to shipping services. Any hope of the Suez Canal rebounding are put on hold at least through 2025.

6. Global reliability improving slightly but not yet near the performances pre-2020.

Market Trends and Insights

The global ocean market is experiencing a mix of challenges, including capacity oversupply, tariff adjustments, and regional congestion. The market dynamics are characterized by:

 - Softening growth and tariff fluidity putting capacity and demand in flux.

- Added capacity on Transpacific turning to oversupply due to fast drop in demand & rates fall.

- Excess capacity supporting global rates are trending lower.

- Many GRI & PSS announcements made by carriers to start end of July or early August in many trades but likely they will not stick.

GLOBAL RATES TRENDING DOWNWARD