The question is whether you’re forecasting or firefighting. After the tariff‑driven surge in May–June, spot rates have eased and settled through early August. Capacity is plentiful, blank sailings are doing the heavy lifting, and this year’s “peak” looks more like a ripple than a wave.
The wins now come from lining up space where was formerly tight, getting a better price but watching congestion hot spots, and letting PO‑level insight guide the plan.
Executive Summary
• Global indices eased again and have largely stabilized since mid‑July; expect a shallow peak with tactical GRI attempts by carriers.
• Effective capacity remains ample (newbuilds + Cape absorption); carriers are using blanks/extra‑loaders to defend utilization.
• Transpacific: Big declines since June; August slide moderates—bias still flat → down into September.
• Asia Europe/Med: Softer to stable; Med premium over North Europe compressed; selective blanks shape weekly prints.
• North Atlantic: Stable overall; inland EU frictions and port pulses reduce effective frequency some weeks.
• Oceania: East Asia→AU firming near‑term on RRIs/blanks; SE Asia→AU flatter.
• Ops watch: Northern Europe congestion elevated in pulses; Singapore sticky but improving; China hubs see weather‑driven bunching.