Opening snapshot

As we move into February, the ocean market feels a bit like sailing in shifting winds: the New Year GRIs have already crested, the pre-Chinese New Year rush is fading, and our index shows spot levels now typically 15–30% below the last 1–3 months and 25–55% below a year ago on key head haul trades. Demand is mild, capacity is abundant, and routing, tariffs, and geopolitics keep rewriting the playbook in real time—but beneath the noise, the same themes hold: an over-supplied market, softer but jumpy rates, and an industry that’s still very much in the game.

Key market points

A. Demand

• Global: low single-digit growth
• U.S. imports: first m/m uptick, still below 2025
• Europe: okay volumes; higher costs + congestion
• Near term: post-CNY demand dip

B. Capacity

• Fleet +~4% in 2026; large orderbook → oversupply
• Pre-CNY: extra capacity on Asia–EU, Asia–Med, TPEB
• Post-CNY: blank sailings as main rate lever

C. Suez / Red Sea

• Mix of Suez and Cape routings
• More Suez → shorter voyages, more effective capacity, more rate pressure
• Security / geopolitics = routing wild card

D. Reliability & ports

• N. Europe: winter + yard + rail/river issues → 1–3 day delays
• Asia hubs: Singapore, Shanghai, Ningbo → bunching, transshipment stress
• North America: main ports fluid; Vancouver rail + winter sensitive

E. Pricing & contracts

• 2025 vs 2024: ~40–45% lower on main trades
• Feb levels: many lanes 15–30% below Jan peaks
• ETS: higher structural cost floor for EU trades
• Contracting: hybrid = annual framework + index + quarterly/mini-bids

F. Air vs ocean

• 2025 air: +3–4%, Dec up mid-single-digits
• Pre-CNY bump ex-Asia; no extreme spikes
• Post-CNY: soft patch, then Q2 normalization

WOWL Spot Rate Trend Index (7 Feb 2026)

Logic:
Negative % = today cheaper than past; positive % = today more expensive than past.