Snapshot

Mid-February feels like a hangover after the early-January spike. Lunar New Year front-loading is gone early, spot rates are sliding, blank sailings are up, and schedules are messy with blank sailings changes. Composite benchmarks show global averages now about 25% below the early-January peak and roughly 20–30% lower than a year ago, with most main head haul trades firmly in “post-peak, volatile territory.

For those facing new contract negotiations, take note of the opportunities to pull together a good balanced contract not only for rates but for the other terms and conditions that impact your business and growth.

1. Rates & demand – in % moves

  • Global: Downward falling continues and now about 25% lower the high this past January.
  • TPEB (Asia→US):
    • vs ~30 days ago: down around 15–25%
    • vs ~3 months ago: down 10–20%
    • vs ~a year ago: down about 35%
  • Asia→N. Europe / Med:
    • N. Europe: down 10–20% vs 1–3 months; 20–30% vs 12 months
    • Med: slightly firmer but still downward trend.
  • Intra-Asia: low absolute levels, but frequent swings of 10–15% in either direction.

Demand picture: low-single-digit global volume forecasted vs a big rate reset; this is a soft price and plenty of capacity type of market, a “buyer’s choice. “

2. Capacity, blank sailings, networks

  • Carrier fleet growth in 2026 will exceed demand by a good margin.
  • Note - blank sailings in February have more than doubled vs January, with more expected as carriers try to win with capacity cuts especially on East–trades.
  • Despite that, effective capacity is still projected higher than demand and added new vessels will continue coming online.
  • Alliances and new partnerships likely to shift and change.  News of Zim deal with Hapag Lloyd is a good example.  More pressure on the other alliances to keep up. 

3. Ports, equipment, reliability

  • Asia hubs: recurring bunching and transshipment stress; 1–2-day delay risk is normal.
  • North Europe: winter + inland constraints → higher yard use, variable arrivals.
  • North America: Most US and Canada ports are working well. Exception is Vancouver with rail and weather issues.
  • Equipment: space and boxes generally available; only pockets of 40' HC tightness.

4. Other risk, policy, geopolitics

  • Red Sea / Suez: more services are edging back to Suez; shorter voyages= more capacity and pressure on rates later in 2026.
  • Tariffs & politics: ongoing trade and tariff announcements and changes keep things in flux.
  • Carbon and fuel rules: EU ETS and fuel rules adding another level of additional cost.

5. Outlook & playbook (Q2–Q4 and early 2027)

  • Market is in a clear overcapacity down-cycle; everything is showing the direction of surplus capacity and lower rates well into 2027.  
  • Working view:
    • Q2: soft, choppy, GRIs mostly tactical and doomed to fail we believe.
    • Q3: “soft peak season” – uplift, but nowhere near historic peaks.
    • Q4: risk window for mini price wars if demand disappoints.
  • Shipper playbook:
    • Treat 2026–27 as an opportunity for a multi-year agreement covering your non-rate terms and possibly an index for rates.
    • Use hybrid contract terms for framework + index bands + mini-bids, etc.

o   Hard-code clauses to cover risk of Red Sea/Suez, ETS, surcharges, and service KPIs.

      • FYI – No GRI, No PSS as examples.